In the heart of New York State, the 21st congressional district stands out as a unique political landscape, stretching across 15 counties and over 16,000 square miles. This expansive rural district, which has swung from supporting Barack Obama to Donald Trump in recent presidential elections, poses a significant challenge for Democrat Blake Gendebien as he vies for a seat against Republican Anthony Constantino in the upcoming midterm elections.
Gendebien's path to victory is fraught with the need to navigate a complex web of political loyalties and regional preferences. While the district has taken a conservative turn, Gendebien's campaign has received mixed reactions from local Democrats and the state party, highlighting the delicate balance he must maintain to appeal to both his party's base and the more conservative electorate of NY-21.
The Republican candidate, Anthony Constantino, CEO of Sticker Mule, has seized on a recent controversy involving Gendebien and Gov. Kathy Hochul to bolster his campaign. A Politico article claimed Gendebien was pressured to withdraw an ad that suggested he would stand up to Hochul or work with Trump, if it was in the district's best interest. Constantino has since branded Gendebien as a "far-left puppet," capitalizing on the perceived pressure from state and national Democrats.
Gendebien's campaign, however, maintains that the ad in question had simply run its course and was replaced with a new one that focuses on his background as a dairy farmer and contrasts his policies with Constantino's. "Farmers know high prices hurt families," the ad states, "but politicians like Anthony Constantino only care about enriching themselves."
The controversy has underscored the challenges Democrats face in flipping a district that has taken a conservative turn while still maintaining support within their party. Gendebien's campaign is receiving support from the New York State Democratic Party, which has opened a coordinated campaign office in Glens Falls, one of three in the district. Yet, recent polls indicate that Gov. Hochul's popularity in the district remains low, potentially hindering Gendebien's efforts.
A Siena Research Institute poll from Aug. 12 showed that upstate voters slightly preferred Hochul's opponent, Bruce Blakeman, in the upcoming gubernatorial election. Meanwhile, a SurveyUSA poll conducted earlier in the month found that 57% of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Hochul, compared to 40% favorable. The same poll indicated that Gendebien held a slight lead over Constantino.
Despite the headwinds, Lynne Boecher, chair of the Warren County Democratic Committee in the district, defended the governor's record in upstate. "Kathy Hochul was born and raised in upstate New York and has always delivered for our families," Boecher said in a statement.
Gendebien's strategy may be influenced by the success of moderate Democrats in districts that voted for Trump. U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of Maine's 2nd Congressional District and Washington's 3rd Congressional District Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez are among those who have managed to maintain their seats despite their districts' conservative leanings. Gendebien's district bears a strong resemblance to Golden's, geographically and demographically.
Political consultant Michael Saxl, who has worked closely with Golden, offered advice for Gendebien and New York Democrats. "They should run local and run hard," Saxl said. "They should completely not be immersed in following any kind of party line doctrine."
As the midterm elections loom, the fate of NY-21's political landscape hangs in the balance. Gendebien's ability to bridge the gap between his party's platform and the district's conservative electorate will be a crucial factor in determining the outcome.
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