A powerful El Niño is taking shape in the Pacific Ocean, and federal forecasters warn it may surpass anything seen in recorded history. The climate pattern is already driving extreme weather across the globe, and its effects are expected to reach millions of people in the months ahead.
The phenomenon could be the strongest yet observed, far outpacing any previous event on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That prospect has alarmed climate experts, not only because of the dangers it presents but because of what it means for the science of prediction itself.
El Niño occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific grow unusually warm, shifting atmospheric circulation patterns worldwide. The consequences can be severe and far-reaching: heavy rainfall and flooding in some regions, punishing drought in others, and disruptions to everything from agriculture to public health.
The intensity of this particular event, experts say, represents a rare scientific opening. A super El Niño offers researchers an unmatched natural laboratory for studying how the ocean and atmosphere interact. Better understanding of that relationship could translate directly into more reliable seasonal forecasts, giving communities more time to prepare for floods, droughts and other hazards.
That is precisely the kind of knowledge that saves lives. When forecasters can tell a region months in advance that it faces an elevated risk of catastrophic rainfall, officials can pre-position supplies, reinforce infrastructure and issue warnings. When they can anticipate drought, farmers can adjust planting decisions and water managers can plan accordingly.
The last strong El Niño, which unfolded in 2015 and 2016, demonstrated both the destructive potential of the pattern and the value of studying it closely. During that event, South Carolina was hit by catastrophic flooding driven by record-breaking rain, an example of how El Niño can reshape weather far from the Pacific.
Recognizing the opportunity, NOAA mounted a rapid response research campaign during that episode. The agency deployed a research ship, aircraft, weather balloons and unmanned drones into the Pacific to gather detailed observations of the developing system. The goal was to capture data in real time, when the phenomenon was at its most active and least understood.
That kind of intensive fieldwork is difficult and expensive, but it has historically paid dividends. Observations collected during strong events help scientists refine the computer models used to predict El Niño's evolution and its downstream effects. Without fresh data, those models can drift out of step with a rapidly changing climate system.
This time, however, NOAA is scaling back its research effort. The agency will not match the level of resources it committed during the 2015-16 event, even as forecasters say the current El Niño is likely to be stronger than that one was. The decision means scientists will have fewer tools in the water and in the air just as a historic event unfolds.
The pullback comes despite broad agreement among climate experts that detailed study of this El Niño could improve forecasts for years to come. Each strong event is different, and the only way to understand how these systems behave is to observe them directly. A missed opportunity now could leave gaps in the scientific record that persist long after this El Niño fades.
For the millions of people whose livelihoods and safety depend on accurate seasonal outlooks, the stakes are concrete. A more accurate forecast can mean the difference between a community that is ready for a flood and one that is caught off guard. In that sense, the research NOAA is now declining to pursue is not an abstract scientific exercise but a form of disaster preparedness.
Forecasters say the current El Niño is still developing and its full strength will become clearer in the coming months. What is already evident is that it is influencing weather extremes around the planet, and that its impacts will be felt across continents regardless of how much data researchers manage to collect.
The irony is difficult to miss: at the very moment when a record-breaking El Niño offers an unprecedented chance to learn how these systems work, the federal government's capacity to seize that chance is being reduced. Climate experts warn that the consequences of that choice may not be fully apparent until the next dangerous event arrives and forecasters find themselves working with an incomplete picture.
For now, the super El Niño continues to build in the Pacific, its effects rippling outward through the global atmosphere. Scientists can watch it happen. The question is how much they will be able to understand about why.
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